Extreme Poverty Surges Amid Rising Global Conflict, Warns World Bank

Photo: Pixabay

A new World Bank report paints a stark picture of the growing human and economic toll in the world’s 39 conflict-affected and unstable economies. With extreme poverty rising rapidly and development goals slipping further out of reach, the report signals a deepening crisis in regions already left behind by global recovery.

According to the World Bank’s first in-depth post-COVID assessment of fragile states, these countries are now home to 421 million people living on less than $3 a day—more than the rest of the world combined. That number is projected to grow to 435 million by 2030, representing nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor.

“More than 70% of people suffering from conflict and instability are in Africa,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. “Yet the world’s attention has remained narrowly focused. These long-running crises are becoming chronic—and misery on this scale is inevitably contagious.”

While other developing countries have resumed growth, conflict-hit economies have been trapped in reverse. Since 2020, their GDP per capita has shrunk by 1.8% per year, in contrast to 2.9% growth in other developing nations. The average per capita income in these countries remains stagnant at $1,500, compared to $6,900 elsewhere.

Employment is another key fault line. With over 270 million people of working age, barely half are employed—highlighting a severe lack of job creation, especially for the youth. These countries are also experiencing developmental regression in education, health, and food security:

• 18% of their population faces acute food insecurity, 18 times higher than in other developing economies.
• Infant mortality rates are more than double, and
• 90% of school-age children fail to meet minimum literacy standards.

The frequency and severity of conflict are at a 25-year high, with violent confrontations now three times more deadly than in the early 2000s. Once conflict erupts, it tends to persist: half of these economies have remained unstable for 15 years or longer.

Yet the report also stresses that early intervention works. “Real-time conflict-warning systems and institutional reform are cost-effective compared to the costs of post-conflict rebuilding,” said M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank.

Despite bleak conditions, long-term potential remains:

• Many of these economies are rich in natural resources essential to the green transition—such as lithium and cobalt.
• Their young, growing populations may offer a demographic advantage by mid-century—if investments in education, healthcare, and private sector development are made now.

The bottom line: Ending extreme poverty is no longer a global ambition—it’s a fragile state emergency. Without addressing conflict, instability, and institutional fragility, the world risks failing its most vulnerable—again.

Sources: World Bank, 2025 Fragility and Conflict Report